As it always happens, whenever an arab ruler from the Persian Gulf visits Teheran rumors and speculations arise on the real reason of the trip and in particular over if he is going to deliver a “hidden message” from the new Trump administration. All the more so when the visit is the first since the “earthquake” in Syria and after Trump reintroduced the old “maximum pressure” strategy with the assumption that this time it will work.
Judging from the iranian official reports of the visit, including the State media, the meeting Sheikh Tamim had with Khamenei was no special at all indeed. All was discussed concerned mainly bilateral relations,regional and international issues. The only topic which grabbed the attention of the reader seemed to be the still “unresolved” issue of the frozen iranian assets. The almost 6 billion $ in iranian funds which are still frozen under US sanctions and are held in a Qatari Bank, after they were released by South Korea in september 2023. A tipical pattern in the flow of money at international level at a time when US sanctions against Iran are in place. The meeting Sheikh Tamim had earlier with President Pezeshkian did not make it to the front pages as, judging from the official reports, everything was about the region and international issues. But there, nothing else was expected.
So, at the end of the day, the question was, did Sheikh Tamim deliver a US message or not?
The issue is largely debated in the iranian cyberspace, and analysts, experts, journalists and watchers have different opinions.
Khabar Online, a popular conservative news website close to the former nuclear negotiatior Ali Larijani, in one analysis does it best to argue what was behind the scenes of the meeting.
Of note, after recalling the last regional turmoil, the fall of Assad, the weakening (to say the least) of the axis of resistance, the Hamas saga and the like, it ends up quoting a renowned iranian analyst, Mostafa Najafi, usually one of the best analyst of regional dynamics with a particular focus on Syria, arguing in its channel that “It seems that the Emir of Qatar was carrying a message from America“ a message which was at the same time a “persuasion” and/or a “coercion” according to the analyst, who also argues that Khamenei did not mince his word in his reply.
This is not to say that the Syrian dossier was out of the agenda either.
The differences between Doha and Ankara when it comes to Syria are widely reported in the cyberspace. And reportedly Sheikh Tamim openly criticised some of Turkey’s policies in Syria. At the same time he called for Iran to interact with the new Syrian ruling group.
According to Khabar Online, with all these interpretations and headlines in Iranian newspapers, in reality, behind the scenes, the politics are much deeper than what the newspapers tell us. The Sheikh was indeed neither carrying a message nor asking for help.
And this is the interesting key point of its interpretation:
The Emir had only come to Tehran for regional coordination in Syria, Gaza, and the Hamas case in the Arab League. The issue of eliminating Hamas from the arab discussions is being seriously pursued by the Arab rulers of the region, and it so strong that in exchange for this elimination, Trump would refrain from relocating the Palestinians.
I report here the translation of the article:
Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani was neither carrying a message nor a request for help; so what was behind the scenes of this meeting?
The Emir of Qatar, just as he had been showing off in the region through Iran during Trump’s first term, has once again extended a helping hand to Tehran. The young Emir will not make peace with Trump!
Zohreh Nowruzpour: The Emir of Qatar met with the Supreme Leader of the Revolution and President of our country, Masoud Pezzekian, yesterday. Iran’s morning newspapers have had various headlines about these diplomatic meetings. From the one who carried the message to the last message in the midst of maximum US pressure against Iran. But everyone was looking for one question: what did the Emir of Qatar want in Tehran? And did he have any requests from the Supreme Leader and the Pezzekian government? Is he going to mediate? Was he carrying a message from America?
Today, the Middle East is pregnant with peace and war. In the same week that Tehran hosted the Emir of Qatar, Riyadh also hosted peace talks for a devastating war. A war that has become almost a scorched earth for all the interested actors in the world, from the United States that started this war to East Asia, each of which has been involved in this East-West war in one way or another for the past three years and has benefited from it. And now today, its peace talks are being held in the heart of the Middle East, a place that has never had a breath of fresh air from war. A region where 50,000 of its inhabitants were recently caught up in the Israeli genocide. A region that did not see much happiness after the Arab Spring and, if we go even further, did not see any happiness after September 11, 2001, and was caught up in numerous wars and arms races that continue to this day. Who knows, maybe now is the time for the unrest in the Middle East to spread to Europe. After all, the world needs war to turn the economy around and prevent the accumulation of weapons. Of course, it will spread to Europe while the European Union and NATO insist on continuing the war.
Now, in this situation, after the fall of Assad, this is the first face-to-face negotiation between the Emir of Qatar and Iranian officials. This visit is very important because after Ahmed Sharia came to power in Syria, his main ally is now talking about the problems and sufferings of Syria in a meeting with the leader of our country. Qatar, which is considered a main ally of the current ruler of Syria, had previously promised the interim president of Syria, Ahmed Sharia, one billion dollars a month to help the country. Now, it has been reported that Qatar has not paid any money to this interim government so far.
Poor coverage of Qatari Emir’s visit to Tehran in Al Jazeera Empire
The website of the Qatar-affiliated Al Jazeera news network has only published a short news story, quoting the Iranian news agency. This type of news coverage is likely intended to send a message to the world that this trip is not that important, in order to reduce sensitivities.
Al Jazeera only mentioned one aspect of the meeting: the situation of Iran’s frozen money. The news network’s English-language website wrote: “The leaders of the two countries discussed bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of common interest. The meeting took place at a time when tensions remain high across the region, with fragile ceasefires in place after months of fighting in Lebanon and Gaza and a transitional government in power in Syria following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. Sheikh Tamim acknowledged the tensions in the region and called on regional countries to cooperate more to deal with the situation. Iran’s state news agency (IRNA) reported that Ayatollah Khamenei said that despite some “ambiguous and unresolved” issues, including frozen assets, Iran considers Qatar a “brotherly country.”
About $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen under US sanctions are currently held in a Qatari bank, after previously being released by South Korea in September 2023.
Al Jazeera further reported that Ayatollah Khamenei accused the United States of obstructing the implementation of the agreement to return the funds to Iran. “We know that the main obstacle to the implementation of the agreement that was reached in this regard is the United States,” he said. He added that Iran expects Qatar to resist Washington’s pressure and return Iranian assets.
This short report from this major news agency shows that the Middle East crisis is beyond what we are currently witnessing; a crisis whose leaders prefer to resolve with less noise. Also, in this news agency, which is known as the media empire in the Middle East, there is no sign of a message from the Emir of Qatar and it is only a report of a meeting. Contrary to what the Iranian newspapers reported.
Was the Emir of Qatar really carrying a message from America?
The US secretary of state has also held consultations with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Riyadh. The fate of Ukraine is a key question among the bargaining and perhaps even conciliatory Trump and Putin.
But another question is about a country that is an ally of Russia and the target of America’s “maximum pressure” on Iran. Russia has a history of ignoring the priorities of the Iranian regime, including in recent developments in Syria. However, it is not yet clear whether the White House can sever Pastor’s ties to the Kremlin.
Mustafa Najafi, an expert on Syrian issues, wrote on his Telegram channel: “It seems that the Emir of Qatar was carrying a message from America. A message based on persuasion or coercion for negotiations. In return, Iran gave the Emir of Qatar a message to convey to Washington; that with Trump’s approach, Tehran will not negotiate and that any threat against Iran will expose the security of the entire region to an unprecedented risk.”
Also, during this visit, Iran’s dissatisfaction with some of Qatar’s policies was expressed. And the important point is that recently, there have been hidden differences between Qatar and Turkey over Syria, and the Emir of Qatar expressed his dissatisfaction with some of Turkey’s policies in Syria in his meeting today. It seems that one of the goals of Sheikh Tamim’s visit to Tehran was this difference with Turkey (in order to provide balance). However, Sheikh Tamim called for Iran to interact with the new Syrian ruling body. Tehran also conveyed its demands and conditions.
According to Khabar Online, the expert is referring to the issue of US maximum pressure when, after the Emir of Qatar met with US President Donald Trump in Miami, he told reporters that he had re-imposed maximum pressure on Iran. Trump signed the memorandum in recent weeks during a meeting with Netanyahu, but since then he has not clearly stated that the memorandum he signed is the same as the previous maximum pressure, but today, at the same time as this meeting, he officially announced this issue.
Or did he ask Iran for help?
In this regard, the Syrian analytical channel also stated in a podcast that the Emir of Qatar did not carry any message from the United States, but rather the Emir’s main goal of this trip was the issue of Syria and Turkey. This analytical channel says in its podcast that the Qatari government feels suffocated by Trump’s arrival and has no choice but to seek help from Iran to overcome these conditions.
The podcast states: The Qatari government was closer to Biden than to Trump and his team. Qatar now feels suffocated, just as Erdogan is angry that the Ukraine peace talks were not played out, Turkey’s financial problems have become apparent, and Erdogan today is unable to repay his heavy loans unless he takes them from the pockets of his country’s people! Turkey is not subject to economic sanctions and blockades, and it does not even have a problem with imports and exports, but because it did not have much capacity and wanted to take Iran’s place in the areas where Iran was sanctioned and also take the place of Syria and Iraq, it is now caught up in the economic conditions of its country and has been unable to manage Syria, and now it has shown today that it can never take Iran’s place in logic. The visit of the Emir of Qatar is important in this regard.
One must ask, weren’t they supposed to support the self-proclaimed Golani government and give it $1 billion a month? 30 million people are hungry in Syria. But no aid has yet reached this country, neither from Turkey nor Qatar.
The Qatari side went to Syria happily, drank Arabic coffee and ate Syrian food, while Saudi Arabia became the powerhouse, the mediator in the region, and Trump’s kind brother, and the host of the two superpowers involved in Syria and Ukraine. This situation made Qatar feel suffocated and did not even dare to help Golani because they realized that Golani could not do anything with this money. In the United States, Tulsi Gabbard was appointed as the country’s director of national intelligence. This woman is known for being anti-al-Qaeda; an issue that even Turkey will grapple with.
Gabbard’s seat even prevented anyone from signing the statement of support for Golani at the Paris summit. Even if the Qataris wanted to do something for Syria, they can’t do it now. This woman will not allow support for terrorists, especially Al-Qaeda, and the Emir of Qatar has realized that any aid to Syria is a pitfall that will drag him down.
Following this issue, Qatar knows and feels that Golani will not last in Damascus. His trip to Iran was about the issue that Qatar wants to breathe in the region through Iran and for this free breathing, why not invest in Iran instead of wasting a billion dollars in Syria and getting into a fight with America? Iran is the way for Qatar to breathe. As the Supreme Leader told him, why did he refuse to return Iran’s money? And why are they not releasing this money now? The fact that Qatar is in a bind today, both because of its policies in Gaza and Syria, and its relationship with the Arab states, is evident when he thanked the Leader of the Revolution for Iran’s courageous support for Gaza and Palestine, which in itself is an important message that an Arab and Muslim country appreciates Iran on this issue.
How did Qatar fare with its neighbors during Trump’s first term? The Arab crisis during Trump’s first term and the country’s severing of ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries took Qatar’s breath away. Now, given Saudi Arabia’s hosting of talks between the two superpowers, if the country wants to breathe during Trump’s second term, it must coordinate with Iran.
Continuing its analysis, this podcast quoted the words of Shahid Amir Abdollahian, the Foreign Minister of the late Raisi government, who said after the Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement in a meeting with the UAE ambassador that in that meeting, I told the UAE ambassador that if we reduce tensions and you now feel secure, this security has a price that you must pay. Of course, the UAE never paid this price and even created tensions in the exchange rate fluctuations in Iran!
The podcast host ultimately concluded that the trip did not carry any message from the United States, and that Iran does not even consider Qatar to be a mediator. Given that CNN also reported that Saudi Arabia is willing to mediate between Iran and the United States, it seems that Iran will never allow Saudi Arabia to play the role of mediator and intermediary. Tehran will not give this opportunity to Bin Salman. If there is to be a country in the Arab region to be a mediator, it is, as always, the Sultanate of Oman. Iran has never been able to trust its rival, whose true nature is still unclear, let alone entrust this matter to this country, just as it will not entrust it to Qatar.
Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, was neither carrying a message nor a request for help; so what was the story?
According to Khabar Online, with all these interpretations and headlines in today’s Iranian newspapers, it seems that the message was only domestic, and that the Iranian people are actually waiting for something good to happen. But behind the scenes, the politics are much deeper than what the newspapers tell us. He was neither carrying a message nor asking for help. He had only come to Tehran for regional coordination in Syria, Gaza, and the Hamas case in the Arab League. The issue of eliminating Hamas is being seriously pursued by the Arab rulers of the region, and it is very strong that in exchange for this elimination, Trump will refrain from relocating the Palestinians. Before the Emir of Qatar met with the Supreme Leader, a delegation from Hamas led by Ziad Nakhala visited the Leader of the Revolution. The issue was only regional. But Iran’s vigilance is also of great importance regarding the release of the frozen money. This means that if the Emir of Qatar is looking for concessions and support to keep Hamas in power, he must first pay the price. If he does, perhaps Iran will reconsider the situation in Syria and help prevent Erdogan’s unbridled actions. The Emir of Qatar is well aware that Syria will not be Syria without Iran’s presence. On the other hand, Tehran should also prevent the option of excluding Hamas from the Arab League meeting.
Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani was neither carrying a message nor a request for help; so what was behind the scenes of this meeting?
The Emir of Qatar, just as he had been showing off in the region through Iran during Trump’s first term, has once again extended a helping hand to Tehran. The young Emir will not make peace with Trump!