(The opinions described in the analysis are of its author)
Mashreq Politics Service* – In recent days, the issue of whether Massoud Rajavi, the leader of the terrorist group MKO (People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran), is alive or dead has been on the agenda for the umpteenth time.
The issue has been brought to the fore again because serious and unprecedented discussions have taken place within the internal relations of the MKO, leading to unprecedented criticism and tensions within the MKO organization.
No images of Massoud Rajavi have been released since the US invasion of Iraq and the fall of the Baath regime in 2003.
Since that date, “Maryam Rajavi” has emerged as the leader of this group. Rumors of his death began at that time, but the organization had not confirmed it until 2007, when “Turki Faisal”, who was present as a special guest at the annual gathering of the MKO in France, mentioned him several times as “the late Rajavi”, and the organization also placed his photo next to the organization’s deceased founders in the Tirana camp.
The issue of his death was strengthened after this display by the organization, and many inside Iran also believed this deception; however, Massoud Rajavi has issued dozens of audio messages on various occasions since at least that year and has been published in the official media of the MKO. Most of these messages contain content inciting terror and violence.
Massoud Rajavi’s absence from public view can be analyzed in several ways:
1- Escaping legal prosecution and erasing the terrorist record of the organization.
2- The organization’s removal from the list of terrorist groups by changing its apparent approach and removing the previous leader;
3- The end of the usefulness of a figure named “Masoud Rajavi” in this group from the perspective of Western intelligence services, which are the main supporters of the organization;
4- Replacing a woman as the new leader of the group and beautifying her face to exert psychological influence on the international community under the guise of a political opposition;
5- Rajavi’s long-term planning for his absence and then his unpredictable emergence as the promised savior!
Based on available documents and evidence, Massoud Rajavi is currently alive, but continues to live a secret life in one of the camps related to the MKO, most likely in the Tirana camp in Albania, under the protection and surveillance of intelligence services.
With the fall of Saddam, as the main supporter of the continuation of the MKO in Iraq, and especially since the early 1990s, due to numerous pressures from the Iraqi people and political and social elites and attacks by Iranian-backed resistance groups on Camp Ashraf, the MKO tried to escape Iraq in any way possible, but in order to leave Iraq and move to Albania, they needed to be removed from the list of terrorist groups in the United States and Europe.
As reported by defected members and scattered international documents, one of the US conditions for the organization to be removed from the list of terrorist groups was the removal of Massoud Rajavi from the organization’s internal and external relations.
Due to the violent and terrorist record he had left in the public opinion of Iraq, Iran, and even European countries, Massoud Rajavi could no longer lead a group that was supposed to continue to exist in Europe from this date onward. Replacing him with someone who was both capable of maintaining the organization and had the potential to be a mercenary for the new masters seemed necessary. This replacement was carried out with the help of the media and money laundering in political circles, and Maryam Qajar Azdanloo (Rajavi) soon became known as the organization’s number one person, both inside and outside the Organization.
Why was it the organization itself that initially fueled the rumor of Rajavi’s death? A very important question that has not been answered precisely yet, but in one analysis, it can be said as follows:
Crisis management
When rumors of Massoud Rajavi’s death first emerged in the early years after Saddam’s fall (2003 onwards), the organization itself remained silent in response to pressure, or sometimes indirectly confirmed that “he is no longer available.” This is a type of crisis management tactic, as without Saddam, the organization was extremely vulnerable, and the removal of its leader could have dealt a more severe shock to the establishment.
Keeping an icon alive
Later, when the initial pressure eased, the organization decided, instead of accepting or denying Rajavi’s death, to keep him alive by using audio messages and vague quotes, suggesting that the organization’s intellectual leadership still existed.
Using the most insidious tool!
The MKO was very clever and insidious in using the tool of “voice” to keep Rajavi’s name alive, because with this tool, there is no need for Rajavi’s image, it is possible to imitate and broadcast old recorded sound (something the MKO has extensive experience in doing) and keep ambiguity alive in the minds of the audience as a tactic, without confirming or denying his death or life.
Another question that arises is why the MKO has continued to keep the issue of Rajavi’s death an ambiguous one and has not taken an official position on it. The following can be assessed:
Maintaining internal coherence
Rajavi is a charismatic and symbolic figure for the MKO, who, after the founders of the organization, has had and continues to have a special sanctity for cadres and supporters. Announcing his death could lead to weakening the morale of members and the disintegration of the group’s command structure, especially when the organization is operating in exile and under certain conditions.
Ambiguity as a tactic
As long as his status remains unclear, the organization can use his name and reputation. This will prevent political opponents and intelligence agencies from knowing exactly who in the organization’s leadership they are dealing with and what approach they are taking.
Succession crisis
Maryam Rajavi is in effect playing the leadership role, but the official announcement of Massoud’s death may challenge her position and intensify intra-organizational disagreements. In fact, Massoud Rajavi’s death (if it has happened) is more of a weakness and a leadership vacuum for the organization, which is why it has been kept in silence and ambiguity.
Iran’s political and security institutions and Rajavi’s death
From the perspective of Iran’s political and security institutions, the difference between whether Massoud Rajavi is alive or dead is more symbolic and propaganda than security. Of course, in the past few years, and especially since 1402, when the trial of the MKO began, the issue of life and death has gained special importance for the judicial system in Iran, because he is the real second-degree defendant in this case that runs for several thousand pages.
Although it can be said that the ideal of not only the security and judicial apparatuses, but also the entire Iranian people, is for Rajavi to die or perish in the worst possible way, in the eyes of analysts, the position of Iranian security institutions on Rajavi’s death can be summarized as follows:
From an operational perspective
The MKO has been out of the serious military phase in its declared policies for more than 20 years, and their main bases in Europe operate as a political opposition. The survival and activity of Massoud Rajavi, as the organization likes and tries to instill in its cadres and supporters (by releasing occasional audio messages from him), could be a driving force for some of the deceived supporters and elements on Iranian soil (the organization refers to these people as rebel centers) to take up acts of harassment like what has happened in the past few years. However, in the event of his death, the MKO will continue to take such acts of harassment in order to continue its existence and attract the support of the intelligence services, which, of course, are considered a type of terrorist act in the legal definition.
From a promotional and psychological perspective
If Massoud Rajavi is alive and appears in public or if, as if overnight, only his name and voice remain, he can, in addition to preserving the organization, influence the morale of the organization’s scattered supporters and members and keep the organization’s discourse alive. The organization is also aware of this point and will continue to pursue Rajavi, dead or alive.
Of course, Rajavi’s death can be considered a propaganda victory for the Islamic Republic, because he, like dozens of other sworn enemies of the Iranian people and the Islamic Republic, accepted death, but the Islamic Republic continues on its path, strong and strong.
Another question is why the identity of the MKO is so dependent on whether Massoud Rajavi is alive or dead? The following can be stated in response:
Person-centered identity
The MKO, led by Massoud Rajavi, has been trained to be person-centered and leadership-centered from the very beginning, and Massoud Rajavi has been known as an “absolute ideological leader.” His death, especially for older members, means the loss of a major pillar of identity.
Incomplete succession
Maryam Rajavi currently plays the apparent role of a leader and has maintained Massoud Rajavi as a leader and myth, but many members and even political observers have never compared her to Massoud Rajavi’s charisma. The official announcement of Rajavi’s death could create internal disputes, a loss of members, and even a split in the leadership cadre.
The mythical end of a generation
Massoud Rajavi was the symbol of the older generation fighting the Islamic Republic. Even some people who broke away from the organization still venerate him as a legend of fighting the tyrant regime (a great historical lie).
With his death, a large part of the organization’s historical legitimacy will also be diminished. This may cause the organization to transform from a political-ideological state into a mere opposition and lobbying group abroad, while preserving ideology is more essential for the organization than food and drink.
New organization
As a result of the above-mentioned cases, in the event of Rajavi’s death and the official announcement of his death, if the new leader is unable to be as successful in controlling the organization’s mental and ideological aspects, it will certainly lead to a more rapid collapse of the organization and its organization.
Finally, it should be noted that the Hypocrites are very stingy in promoting Rajavi’s survival! In the Persian-speaking environment, they keep him alive by publishing text and audio attributed to him, but in the non-Persian-speaking environment, there is no room for debate about whether Massoud Rajavi is alive or dead, and the Hypocrites do not even translate and publish audio messages attributed to him, which contain calls for terror and violence, and harsh language that is against human rights, into other languages.
*Mohammad Mehdi Mirzaei; Researcher in the field of counter-terrorism